The Future of Work
It’s a sunny autumn day in San Francisco. The iconic fog has lifted and I am walking through the financial district on my way to the Post Office. This trip is necessary due to the fact that the USPS website does not recognize my address and won’t allow me to forward my mail online. There are some things we must do in person, but once there ironically I must show them the electronic version of my lease on my iPhone.
As I walk through the mostly empty streets on a Tuesday morning I can’t help but wonder what does the future look like for San Francisco? I ask my friends, my colleagues, and even my daughters and no one knows. They all shake their heads in dismay.
I moved to San Francisco when I was twenty-five. I was a product manager for Bank of America working in the consumer electronic banking division (e.g. automated teller machines, debit cards, and online banking). At the time all of the big banks were headquartered in San Francisco. I would sit in meetings and look out over the beautiful city and think I was at the center of the universe. At thirty-five I was working at start-ups South of Market Street building Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) products and later music equalization software fueled by Venture Capital. In both environments and at each point in time I felt like San Francisco was the epicenter and I was in the middle of it all. This sentiment was echoed by a man I met the other day who works in tech who said that in 2019 he felt there was nowhere in the world he would rather be.
Today, the Financial District in San Francisco is hardly recognizable from what it once was. Yes, the logos are still on the buildings, with the Sales Force Tower casting a shadow over them, but the streets are deserted with most storefronts boarded up. Only at certain times of day will you see a trickle of what used to be the robust workforce as they exit the elegant glass lobbies of their corporate headquarters and walk down the street with their sneakers and backpacks. It seems that this state of affairs can’t continue, but what will take its place?
A few weeks ago I attended a lecture at Shack15 called The Future of Work. I was expecting the discussion by the two authors to be about what we can expect work to look like in the future, but it was focused on how to avoid burnout and align your passions with your work. Although equally important it was not what I was seeking. In the days that followed, I did my own research into this topic. I wanted to know what the experts are predicting the actual structure of work will look like in the future.
Following are my notes from countless articles, studies, statistics, and reader comments. I took note of what I thought were the most relevant and probable outcomes of what the future holds for work and how this pertains to San Francisco.
The Future of Work
COVID-19 accelerated remote work, e-commerce, telemedicine, online banking, and streaming media. This required more focus on faster digital automation and artificial intelligence (AI). These advances have ushered in a new era for both workers and consumers reducing face-to-face interaction on all levels. These advances were years in the making but were quickly implemented and adopted by the masses in response to COVID-19.
Artificial Intelligence
AI has created a great deal of fear, but the truth is that AI will create micro-trends within the economy domestically and globally by automating tasks and eliminating approximately 800 job types. But, never fear, for the many jobs that are lost new jobs will take their place.
Low-skill jobs will decline in the areas of food service, production, and office support. There will be a further decline in grocery store clerks and paperwork office-type jobs. Online shopping and online tasks will accelerate. The low-skill jobs will be replaced with jobs in e-commerce and warehouse management, the green economy, care of the elderly, and teaching and training.
In advanced economies, 20–25% of the workforce will work remotely 3–5 days per week. However, half of the workforce must be in-person experts suggest. Jobs in health care, emergency services, security, and mid-level management will require full-time on-site attendance.
In the hybrid model employees will be in person for brainstorming, and negotiations and while giving sensitive feedback. Executives will focus on strategic clarity, coaching direct reports, and empathy.
Compensations and stretch goals will be less of a driver for employees in the future. Companies and organizations that focus on providing meaningful products and services over profits will be favored. As online work becomes more prevalent employees will focus on interactions that are more meaningful and intentional.
Team size will be reduced to outcome-based management of small cross-functional teams. Employees will be reskilled to increase talent velocity and will lean more on formal training and apprenticeship mentoring.
In my opinion, this will be most prevalent in the development of young talent workers who require monitoring, training, and mentoring. More experienced workers will enjoy flexible remote work. I would like to see the cities be a hub for young workers as they train, learn, and build their networks. Young workers as they become more skilled and advanced will spend less time in the office.
Companies will be more intentional about designing interactions for collaboration and will communicate expectations and norms more clearly as in-office and face-to-face meetings will be less frequent. Executives will be able to have more impact as in-person interactions are given more meaning and focused attention.
Advanced technology and new technology will continue to be developed and adopted to drive optimal results in the workplace.
Elements That Matter Most In The Future
- How people and companies make money: sustainable and ethical products will be favored by consumers and thus be places that will attract top talent as workers become more focused on meaning and companies become more willing to sacrifice profits to attract top talent and retain consumer loyalty.
- How do they do the work that makes money: collaboration and talent pools will be created to solve complex problems, drive innovation, and meet consumer demands.
- Where they do the work: work will be brought to the people and employees will have more control over where they work and when.
People As The Most Valuable Resource
In the future, as many entry-level roles are eliminated people and their unique and creative talents and problem-solving skills will become the number one resource and most valuable asset of future companies.
Development of and clarity on skill pools will enter the workforce placing more responsibility on Human Resources. This will allow for flexible work groups that have unique talent mixes to solve complex problems.
Current employees will be mined for their unused talent and potential. Human Resources will be tasked with knowing what skills each employee has even if they are not using those skills in their current jobs. There will be a constant assessment of where companies are long or short on talent to meet future business needs.
Where We Work
In the past people were brought into large cities to work in factories. They left rural homes to earn money in the highly lucrative jobs available in major cities during the Industrial Revolution. Later, white-collar jobs were moved to large suburban office parks where workers could live nearby.
In the future, we will see the work being brought to the people. Companies will headquarters and office buildings will be located where talented workers want to live. This will include more affordable hubs like Austin and Nashville that offer a higher quality of life for workers.
Is the Future Brighter?
After doing my research I think the future looks bright for workers. As someone who has always loved technology, I see the future streamlining technical tools and making them easier and easier to use. My hope is that the future of work holds more flexibility, talent development, and satisfaction for workers.
In the not-too-distant future, I want to see the streets full of people who are honing their talents, contributing to the world, and building lifelong networks, but most of all I want for them to believe, like I did, that there is no place they would rather be.
The only way to go from here San Francisco is up.
Please share your thoughts in the comments on this topic below.